The Fall Campaign Shapes Up

And in some ways it seems like the primary campaign all over again, with McCain standing in for Hillary.

McCain, "maverick"image notwithstanding, is the "experience" candidate who is now trying to twist Obama's "change" message into his own slogan (change you can believe in). Remember Clinton's "fairy tale" meme? Her attempts to portray herself as having 35 years of experience making change? It didn't work for her, and I doubt it will work for McCain.

Like in the primary, where Obama was the underdog in delegate-rich states, Obama is the underdog in states with a lot of Electoral College votes. He will seek to make it up in other states to replicate what he did in the primary -- offset losses in big states with multiple victories in smaller ones. In fact, he has announced a "50-state" strategy. It will be interesting to see if he can push McCain to pour money into states that should be a "wash" for him, as he did to Hillary in Pennsylvania.

Finally, we'll let George Will have the last word. He says current polls are meaningless because Obama has shattered their turnout models.