Someone asked me today my thoughts on the tightening of the polls. Here's my take:
I think the polls are wildly inaccurate in this election. Two reasons:
As George Will has pointed out, the polling models don't take into account the new voters Obama will bring. Remember, most polls are predicated on "likely voters" which is based on past elections. 2008 will not be like past elections.
Countering that is the number of people who won't vote for Sen. Obama because of his race. I know people, back where I come from, who are life-long Democrats who have never voted for a Republican but who have said they are voting for John McCain. That factor is also unlikely to be picked up by the polls.
Do these trends balance each other out? Dunno.
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